Rising temperatures could, among other things, destroy the tourism industry.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) places particular emphasis on rising temperatures. So what is the situation in our region? We interviewed Nathalie Hilmi, member of the Monaco Scientific Center and IPCC researcher. Its job is to make the link between science and economics.
The first problem is rising temperatures. “In the Mediterranean, temperatures are above the world average,” explains Nathalie. “The increase in the global average is 1.1% degrees Celsius. To date, the Mediterranean basin has warmed by 1.5 degrees.
“On the other hand, we will have more and more droughts and less and less wind. This means less precipitation, creating ecological and agro-ecological risks. Less wind also means that investments in wind energy will not be as successful as we thought. “
“Then, the problem of heat waves. They will be more frequent, intense and longer. The temperature forecast in our region will approach those of Algeria, i.e. 40 ° C in summer. And this will have a direct impact on the economy of the region.
“If tourists decide to go somewhere else because it will be cooler, in the long run we would have killed an industry that was making money. In the PACA region, 10% of employees work in tourism.
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Sea level rise
“The Arctic and Antarctica continue to melt. And we have the expansion of water due to the rise in temperature. All this together will raise the sea, ”says Nathalie, before explaining the gravity of the situation. “Globally, we thought the sea level would drop from 43 to 84 cm by 2100. In the Mediterranean, we think it will exceed one meter.
The waterfront buildings are protected, she says. However, infrastructure is only designed to withstand up to a certain level. The Anse du Port district, for example, has been studied according to all the possibilities of the IPCC projections.
However, these projections have their limits. “When you do projections, they’re models, and you don’t know what scenario is going to take place.” If the situation drastically improves, there will be no risk. “If, on the other hand, we allow carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to increase without limit, then yes, there may be a threat.”
The report is clear: climate change is caused by human activities
Change is still possible
“The real solution advocated by the IPCC is to drastically reduce our CO2 emissions. The report is clear: climate change is caused by human activities. And for that, there are solutions, at all levels.
Among these, Nathalie Hilmi evokes the idea of eliminating CO2 from the atmosphere by using natural and technological solutions and of redirecting investments towards renewable energies.
It is also possible to act in everyday life. “We need a change in mindset, and even consumers need to be aware that every action they take has an impact.” This refers to a basic principle of economics: supply and demand. “The demand comes from the consumer, if there is no demand, the producer will not go to the other side of the planet looking for his fruits and vegetables.”
The next decisive meeting is COP26. Upstream, Nathalie Hilmi will lead a task force from 12 to 14 October with experts in natural sciences, economics and political decision-makers. “We will meet and reflect for two days. “The solutions found will be presented at COP26,” with the Monaco label on it “.
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